Something different this way comes! I am sensing a change in our local Portland real estate marketplace; in that well-priced, well-staged properties, good condition properties are being snatched up by eager buyers!!

Supply and demand!  This is always an element of what controls economics!  Our local real estate market lacks good inventory thus I have found myself in a multiple offer situation 4 times in the last two months.  So,considering the “state of real estate” in the last few years, why the lack of inventory?  Part of the equation is that due to depressed prices, some who might sell, can’t or choose not to right now because they may owe more than the price the current market will bear! Another element is the lack of “good” inventory!  This refers to the number of short-sales (an unreliable thus unacceptable option for some buyers), the number of properties that are in less than stellar condition (i.e: some foreclosures or poorly staged homes) and finally over-priced properties!  Thus, competitively priced properties are selling relatively quickly.  Certain price points are moving more quickly than others!

Warren Buffet recently wrote that he felt housing was a very attractive investment right now.  Then Donald Trump joined the bandwagon! There has been lots of press regarding our improving economy. Home prices are diminished, interest rates are at record lows and buyers with decent credit and the where-with-all to come up with a down-payment are turning back to real estate (remember it takes as little as a 3.5% down payment to get FHA financing, VA financing for qualified vets = 0% down).  Investors have been rounding out their financial portfolios with real estate purchases with decent ROI (return on investment).  However, this hasn’t yet made a huge impact on over-all local home values!  We are still back down to 2003-2005 pricing (according to the location of the property).  Our market does seem to have begun some of the first steps to recovery but I still believe it will be “slowly, slowly…step-by-step”.  So, as a buyer interest rates still trump price! And, as a seller….yes, properties are selling but “pricing, pricing, pricing” is still the new “location, location, location”!!

FEBRUARY PORTLAND METRO REAL ESTATE UPDATE!!!!

With the holidays, Valentine’s Day (not to mention my birthday) behind us, we can look forward to the 2012 Real Estate Season!!!  2011 ended on a positive note and this year has definitely started off on another positive note.  Closed sales experienced an 18.3% increase if you compare this January to the same month a year ago.  These are the highest numbers for January since 2007 (remember, if you believe the statistics, March 2007 was the height of the market).  The average time on the market has also improved, decreasing from 160 to 136 days.  December 2011 saw 5.3 months of inventory (down from 11.3 months in January 2011 and 12.6 in 2010).  January 2012 came in at 7 months of inventory, but that’s a fairly typical trend that January will be one of the highest (and usually THE HIGHEST) month of the year in housing inventory.  I have been in a multiple offer situation 3 times in the last 6 weeks!  So, well-priced, good condition properties are moving!!!  That speaks volumes to me!

SELLERS:  What does this mean for sellers?  It means if you haven’t already absorbed the market data, get someone you trust to give it to you!  Some properties are harder than others to price correctly; such as those with ethereal value (views, waterfront, etc) or challenged properties (fixers, un-staged, over-stuffed).  None-the-less, you must react quickly to the marketplace.  If you get a “lot” of activity and no offers, it probably sounded good but still has issues (remember price overrides all objections).  I’m telling you that well-placed, well-marketed properties will go fairly quickly.  If your home is not selling, re-visit price, condition, location.  There are no magic potions!

BUYERS:  What does this mean for buyers?  The Fed has claimed they will keep interest rates down until 2014.  If that doesn’t change, then mortgage rates (which still fluctuate daily) should stay very low giving buyers some time to position themselves for the best buy.  However, that being said, like I mentioned in my beginning paragraph the inventory is beginning to be absorbed.  Since pricing is always about “supply and demand”, I have to question that the pricing continuum will continue to go down!

INVESTORS:  What does this mean for investors?  The rental market is very good in the Portland area, generally with vacancy rates less than 4%. You use your down-payment + other people’s money (a Mortgage) to purchase a property. Your tenants pay that mortgage (PITI=principal, interest, taxes, insurance), you realize whatever cash-flow (rents minus PITI & maintenance=cash-flow). So, whether the real estate market appreciates or not, you accrue equity due to the tenants paying down the mortgage on a monthly basis.  It can be a challenge to lay the foundation to be an investor, but “NO PAIN, NO GAIN”!!  Read my recent post on “Preparing to Be a Real Estate Investor”!

An Investment Alternative

To say the investment market is unsettling is an obvious understatement. The market is up, then down 8% in the last ten days and the news suggests that this roller-coaster ride may continue for awhile!

Preservation of capital is probably today’s most important investment consideration (especially for those enjoying or nearing retirement) and making a profit would be a bonus. Of all the conventional investment alternatives like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, gold, commodities, CDs and annuities, housing could be one the best asset classes in America.  I always say that I’m a great believer in investment real estate: you use other people’s money (a mortgage) to handle the major part of the purchase of an investment, the tenants’ pay off that mortgage (albeit slowly), you immediately enjoy the available cash-flow + realize the lowered principal balance/equity accrued caused by the tenants paying down the mortgage!  So, even if there is NO appreciation in the housing marketplace (which I think we can expect in the short-run, but eventually our economy will recover and natural appreciation will begin), you win!!  I certainly can’t say that about my mutual funds!!

Homes have had a 30% to 40% price correction in the past four years. Mortgage rates are at near all-time low rates with 30 year terms available for investors. Rents have increased significantly over the past two years while vacancy rates have decreased. People will always need a place to live.

Five year certificates of deposits earn a little over 2% but rental properties are yielding much more than that. Income properties are tangible assets that have benefited dramatically in inflationary times. Cash assets can be devastated by inflation and diversifying into income properties could provide some protection.

Single family homes, duplexes and multi-plexes offer investors the opportunity to borrow large loan-to-value mortgages at fixed rates for long terms on appreciating assets with tax advantages and reasonable control. Investing in rentals can provide a high rate of return!

“The significant problems you face today cannot be solved at the same level of thinking you were at when you created them.” Albert Einstein

The housing market has definitely caused significant problems for some people but is also providing some amazing opportunities for others.  If you have a down-payment, some life stability (is that an oxymoron???) and good credit, you could get a combo of diminished property pricing and extraordinary interest rates.  Buyers, sellers and real estate agents have been surprised and financially affected by these new economic developments over the past few years.  Real estate agents aren’t like retailers who wake up one day realizing they have the wrong merchandise on the shelves.

Everyone needs a place to live and whether you rent or buy, you pay for the house you occupy.  While the home for sale remains the same, the way you plan your entry into the housing or investment property market has to change.  A true sense of your lifestyle, your financial plan and strategy, your stability AND your resilience have to be evaluated!  I believe a true financial strategy is a “fluid thing” and you have to be responsive to the other elements you can’t control. But, you have to at least start with a plan.  It can be a very simple plan (that you can embellish later) such as “I want to buy a home for my new or growing family”.  So, start with speaking with any mentors you might trust.  Family members, friends and confidants, other professionals (such as a trusted Realtor, mortgage broker, CPA, accountant). You begin by brainstorming your “simple plan”.

Remember listing agents are diametrically opposed to the objectives of buyer’s agents. This is not to say that there cannot be a win-win situation but each agent is trying to negotiate the best price and best terms for their client.  So, make sure you have secured representation that is working for you!

Financing can make listings more marketable and structure a transaction to provide the buyer with the cheapest cost of housing.  Personal experience is a great teacher but a very expensive way to learn.  Get help…but get trusted help!

On a VERY positive note.  We live on the west coast and are not enduring the effects and after-effects of Hurricane Irene!  Perspective is always good to add to whatever you are facing.

APRIL 2011 PORTLAND METRO REAL ESTATE UPDATE!!

And, so we hobble into Springtime in the greater Portland area, knowing full-well that we will quickly forget how tentative our Spring season is here in Portlandia once our awesome Summertime arrives (or at least that’s how I survive)!!  So, how is our real estate market surviving?  Well, I guess we’ll have to pull out that word “tentative” again.  However, we are experiencing continued activity with well-priced properties.  I was just involved in two multiple offer/over asking price situations on an investment property and a single family property, that completely took me by surprise.  But, of course, with the low interest rates and low pricing investors are anxiously trying to buy properties with the potential for cash-flow and home buyers are trying not to miss the low interest rates.  Recently there has been some talk suggesting the elimination of our mortgage tax deduction.  I think we all need to be very vocal about the repercussions of this on the housing market and our pocketbooks.  Overall, our local real estate market recovery is bumpy but trending upwards. Our stats are down from this time last year (we had the home-buyer tax credits artificially supporting the real estate market at that time).  We now have 7.1 months of inventory, which is comparable/close to the 7 to 7.3 months of inventory we had in April, May and June of 2010 with the tax credits!!  On the national level, Lawrence Yun (National Association of Realtors’ chief economist) says “Pending home sales have trended up very nicely since bottoming out last June, even with periodic monthly declines. Contract activity is now 20 percent above the low point immediately following expiration of the home buyer tax credit.”

BUYERS:  What does this mean for buyers?  It’s really a “more of the same” buyer’s market with the potential for an increase in interest rates.  And, I realize that the industry has been predicting that for quite awhile.  However, as the market continues to slowly (operative word: slowly) recover there will be a time that mortgage interest rates will have to reflect that recovery.  I have seen it before where interest rates suddenly start to rise and it can happen quickly and I can’t stress enough how interest rates trump price again and again and again!  There is a now again a conventional loan with many of the same features as an FHA loan but cheaper!  With only 3% down and a 680 minimum credit score, you can get into a home!  There are a few other factors that affect this loan, but discuss your options with a trusted mortgage broker (call or write if you need a referral).

SELLERS:  What does this mean for sellers?  It’s really “more of the same” in the seller market as well, with price and condition holding court!  You can’t get complacent about condition if you want to garner the most that you can in a down market.  You also cannot overprice and you might have to trust someone else’s assessment of how your home fits into the continuum (our homes are like our babies; always the prettiest, the best, etc).  Preparing your home for market, making it available for potential buyers and keeping it “fit for public consumption” is not for “wussies”, so  get serious about what it might take to actually sell your house, not just list it!  Buyers are looking for aggressively priced homes that make them feel safe in a real estate environment that has taken us all for a ride!

INVESTORS:  What does this mean for the investor?  I don’t blame the investor for wanting to be as involved as financially possible in this market!!  There is lots of competition for the smaller investment property (duplex to 4-plex) in popular neighborhoods, so you must be vigilant, pro-active and sometimes aggressive in your approach.  And, some very good news is that NAR (National Association of Realtors) was successful in getting the 1099 Landlord reporting law (enacted last year) repealed.  The provision required even the smallest property owners — those who might just be renting out a second home or other rental property — to track any work done for them that totaled $600 a year or more and to send any vendors whose work reaches that amount an IRS Form 1099, so they could report the income to the federal government.  Thankfully, that law has been repealed (what a paperwork nightmare)!!!

MARCH 2011 PORTLAND METRO REAL ESTATE UPDATE!

Spring is almost here and the question is “what will the Springtime/Summertime real estate selling season be like in Portland this year?”.  As mentioned in my last two monthly updates, we had an unseasonable surge in real estate activity that began in November/December of 2010 and has continued into the first quarter.  Sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in the fourth quarter of 2010 rose from the third quarter in all but one state, though only one state saw an annual rise compared to fourth-quarter 2009, according to a National Association of Realtors’ recent report.  In the Portland Metro market, sales activity showed there were fewer active and new listings on the market and an improvement in closed sales in February 2011.  Closed sales this month were above levels from both last February and the month prior (January 2011).  There was also a notable decrease in inventory (down to 10.9 months of inventory from 11.3 at the first of the year), which was lower than the previous two Februarys.  Closed sales were up 5.8% in February 2011 compared to February 2010. 

Buyers:  What does this mean for buyers?  It does mean that it is still a buyers’ market.  However, at my recent Real Estate Broker’s Network meeting there were accounts of many recent multiple offer situations at the first-time buyer price point.  I have had well-positioned (i.e.:  priced correctly, well-staged) homes sell relatively quickly at various price points.  So, this recovery, however tentative and sporadic, is persevering!  Current 30 year mortgage rates have been averaging 4.875% this week, which is almost one point above the all-time low reached in November 2010.  Many economists predict that 30-year mortgage rates will be somewhere between 5.5% and 6% by year’s end.  However, there are lots of factors.  Geopolitical unrest can create a buying binge as investors shed stocks and flee to the safe haven of the bond market. This helps bond prices improve and when bond prices improve, so do home loan rates.  FHA insured loans will be increasing the annual insurance premium .25% effective April 18^th, 2011.  The upfront mortgage insurance premium will remain unchanged at 1%. Click to see how this could affect potential buyers. There is also the MCC (Mortgage Credit Certificate) available to some buyers. Data from Moody’s Analytics shows that US home affordability returned to pre-bubble levels in a growing number of markets over the last year.  Overall, as a percentage of total income, the cost of owning a home is less expensive than it’s been at any time since 1963!!

Sellers:  What does this mean for sellers?  If the first-time buyer’s market continues to flourish we can expect a “trickle-up” effect as those sellers can move on and purchase their 2^nd home, 3^rd home, etc.  So, we should see movement in property but probably not in pricing right away.  Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow said it’s unlikely that “substantial price appreciation will occur in any market nationwide in the near term”.  Home loan delinquency rates in the US have fallen to their lowest levels in a few years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But, we still have “shadow inventory” that has not yet made it to the market which will continue to affect pricing!  Selling a home is partnership and together we must formulate a plan to have a successful venture!

Investors:  What does this mean for investors?  Investment property is a great way to widen the scope of your financial portfolio and set up multiple sources of income.  I often hear, “but, I don’t want to be a landlord”.  Sometimes it’s just profiling yourself and a little change in attitude.  I talk often of loving the idea that my tenants purchase my real estate for me by paying my mortgage and, then, the cash flow is simply “icing on the cake”.  I think of my tenants as my customers or my clients and use the “Golden Rule”.  And, you can always opt for paying a good property manager or purchasing a condo with little or no maintenance.  Also, having a good contractor/handyman on speed dial is a “life-saver”!  Many investors are taking advantage of the market and setting up their financial futures.  With homeownership rates decreasing and distressed properties increasing, it’s not surprising that investors make up 20% of the current buyer’s market!

FEBRUARY 2011 PORTLAND METRO REAL ESTATE UPDATE!

The “uptick” in market activity that began (oddly enough) in November and December of 2010 has continued into the New Year!  After the expiration of the various Home-Buyer credits that were available until the end of May 2010, we experienced a rather dismal summer real estate season that drifted into the autumn months.  Suddenly, when everyone should be preparing for the holidays, an unseasonal surge in real estate activity???  So, closed sales began the year at a higher level than January 2009 and 2010.  Inventory also saw a lower level than the first month of ’09 and ’10, dropping 1.3 months compared to January 2010 and closed sales were up 5% in January 2011.  But, the average sale price declined 11.9% this last year.  Clackamas County saw the year-over-year average sale price drop 7.6%, Multnomah County was down 0.1% and Washington County lost 2.3%.  Today when making appointments to show property, I found two already had offers.  A recent competitively priced, well-positioned, well-staged listing went sale pending in under a week.  To me this indicates some “pent-up buying energy” in our marketplace coupled with the fact that interest rates have gone up slightly in the last few months. If this trend continues with home sales exceeding inventory (and, ultimately absorbing excess inventory), you could expect pricing to level off soon and potentially resume the climb.

Sellers:  What does this mean for sellers?  It means that there are buyers willing to buy and they are “sticking their toe in the water”.  It’s still very competitive and I’m definitely not complacent about getting my listings staged to highlight their best features, priced to lure the reluctant buyer and positioned through superior marketing!  We still have a slew of foreclosure and short-sale inventory that we cannot ignore.  There’s nothing “magic” about getting your home sold.  As always, it’s  location, condition, price!!!

Buyers:  What does this mean for buyers?  It means that with mortgage interest rates slowly creeping upward (in the last 3 months interest rates have increased by an average of 1%:  *see chart below to determine what that means to you as a buyer*), if you have a down-payment, good credit and a little faith, you might want to at least consider getting into the housing market (remember, there are creative ways to secure that downpayment).  Housing affordability is over 180, an all-time high when 100 is considered good and you’re still renting?  It remains a buyer’s market and you might want to have a discussion with a trusted mortgage broker and a seasoned real estate professional about options and compile a financial profile of rent-vs-buy!!

Investors:  What does this mean for investors?  Well, the Census Bureau’s 4rth Quarter survey of Residential Vacancies and Homeownership has been released and the numbers indicate the possibility of rent inflation as demand for rental units grow.  Starting or increasing a rental portfolio could capitalize on this demand! Click here for some new regulations for homeowners and rental property owners.

Auld Lang Syne – Happy New Year!

JANUARY 2011 PORTLAND METRO REAL ESTATE UPDATE!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!  Well, with 2010 tucked away and safely behind us we can look forward to a new year, new beginnings and (perhaps) some continuing positive economic indicators.  When studying this month’s “Market Action” (compiled by the Realtor’s Multiple Listing Service), the first thing that strikes me is that we certainly ended the year with less inventory than we began with in January 2010.  We started the year with 12.6 months worth of homes to sell and finished the year with 7.9 months of inventory!  The lowest amount in the last three years was 7 months in May of 2010 (probably a result of the home-buyer tax credit).  The momentum I mentioned feeling in my last update was realized with the highest monthly level of activity in December since June.  For 2010, the average sale price dropped 2.7% compared to 2009.  However, economists continue to agree that it will be a long-haul out of our present slump.  I recently grilled an appraiser at one of my listings that had sold as to what he saw happening in the real estate market.  He said he is seeing the banks “delay, then pray”.  When I inquired as to what that meant, he said they are delaying foreclosures (so they’re not “on the books”) and praying (that they can eventually, slowly unload the foreclosure inventory).  If we are waiting to make a change, we might need to revisit our goals and embrace a new normal (in other words, whatever changes we need to make might be based on a new set of assumptions).  In other, OTHER words, if you’re waiting to sell till the market “returns” (whatever that means), have at least a 5-year timeline in mind! 

BUYERS:  What does this mean for buyers?  If you were lucky or smart enough to take advantage of the diminished pricing, low interest rates AND the home buyer tax credit this year, you may actually be excited about doing your taxes.  Remember to request your final HUD-1 from your Real Estate Broker so your tax accountant can make sure and give you every possible legal write-off.  Don’t delay getting your taxes organized, if the 2010 tax filings are anything like the 2009 filings, taxpayers claiming either the first time home buyer credit or the credit for repeat home buyers can expect delays in getting their refund.  For new buyers, it is still very much a “buyer’s market”!  There are FHA loans available with as little as 3.5% down and there are other creative ideas for getting into a new home. The “Bloomberg Business Week” rated Portland the #1 large metro area for long-term real estate value!  Don’t forget about the extended tax credit for members of the military, Intelligence and Foreign Service who have served outside of the U.S. for at least 90 days between January 1, 2009 and May 1, 2010

SELLERS:  What does this mean for sellers?  Well, it means it should not take as long to sell your house, IF it’s priced correctly for your market and staged to be minimalist and a “clean slate” for the new buyer to imagine his/her life.  However, I suspect that inventory will increase as the Spring approaches and that could change.  And, if my appraiser is correct there will still be more foreclosure and short-sale inventory with which to contend.  Rick Sharga, a senior vice President at RealtyTrac, which tracks notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions and home repossessions, believes that 2011 will be the peak!  Pricing is difficult in this market and sometimes it’s a process to find that “sweet spot” in the market.  Staging is something I can handle very well, but it sometimes behooves the seller to bring in professional help.

INVESTORS:  What does this mean for investors?  There is not a huge multiplex inventory (which generally will pencil out better than a single family) but once you identify a good property, interest rates for investors are still very good (low-to-mid 5’s).  You will get the best interest rate with 30% down but you can get into the market with as little as 10% down with good credit and cash reserves.  Rents are going up in many markets and owning rental property can be very attractive.  Even if you run the numbers on a piece of property with no appreciation, amortization alone will grow equity.  You can allow the renters to pay off your mortgage!  Passive-Income producing real estate can be a great asset to a diversified financial portfolio.  As part of your overall tax strategy, don’t forget the 1031 Exchange (capital gains tax deferral) when you sell!

Portland Residential Real Estate Closed Sales 2002-2010

Residential Real Estate Closed Sales in the Portland Metro Area from 2002-2010. (Click on the image for a larger version for easier viewing). Steve Emory of NW Mortgage Group shared this. It gives a bit of a different historical perspective on actual closed sales. It was surprising to me (I had no inclination that 2010 was better than 2009). You have to study it for a moment, but there are a lot intriguing dynamics!