“Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades”
What do you predict will happen in the real estate market in 2012? It’s been a crazy 3 to 4 years in both our local and national real estate markets. If you agree with the statistic that March 2007 was the absolute pinnacle of the real estate frenzy, then we are coming up on 5 years of instability and various levels of distress! I know we definitely started to see some signs in 2007 (and, even earlier) and in 2008 Portland began to experience the adjustment in earnest, albeit slowly! Portland was a little “late to the party” as compared to some areas of the country. And, we may be out-staying our welcome?
We’ve had these real estate “mood-swings” before in my illustrious 25+ year career, but the difference this time was the “depth of the deceit”; the dark under-belly of a world most of us know nothing about. The “behind-the-scenes” marketplace wheeling and dealing which ultimately undermined our economy.
But, what’s done is done! Now we have to slowly and surely re-align our real estate expectations to our new normal. I do believe that we still have a considerable reserve of foreclosures and short-sales which will continue to plague our local market. Jobs are an integral part of our recovery and with jobs comes confidence. The jobs numbers of late are a little better but hard to correctly gauge. Consumer confidence does appear to be on the rise. We have the lowest inventory of homes for sale in the Portland area in three years! And, the total “days on market” (DOM), or the time it takes to sell the average home, has decreased. I think we will continue to deplete inventory in 2012…again…slowly. Should this sales trend continue, expect prices to level off soon and they could potentially resume their climb from there. However, I don’t really expect any real noticeable appreciation to begin in 2012.
The first of the baby boomers will begin turning 65. Woo hoo (or not)! So, that could precipitate some housing changes. I think the uber-low mortgage rates will stay with us and attract 1st time buyers who have the credit scores and means for a down-payment. Who knows what the 2012 elections will bring but it usually does NOT mean a lot of drastic changes in policy. It will continue to be a cautious market!! I am starting to see a little new construction again. I believe that tight money will continue to be a stumbling block but we are already seeing a bit of loosening of the mortgage-lending purse strings. However, my recent experiences will make me predict that the appraisal process will be behind the rest of the mortgage industry. The appraisal industry received a huge brunt of blame for some of our recent trials and tribulations. The sins of the few were absolutely visited on the many in that situation!!!
I definitely do NOT have a crystal ball but I do have confidence that the only consistency in life IS change. However, the one thing I love about owning a primary residence or an investment property is that, no matter what, a certain amount of your investment (principal) goes towards your overall wealth development (whether there’s appreciation or not)! In a primary residence (your home), you pay a certain amount towards the principal in the mortgage (the rest goes to interest; a tax write-off) every month. In a cash-flowing investment property, your tenants pay for your mortgage by buying down the principal (you still get the interest write-off plus depreciation plus maintenance=nice tax advantages) .
The Wall St Journal wrote in an article yesterday: ”The U.S. Housing bust has made the single family home an extremely attractive investment. House prices have fallen sharply and 30-year mortgages are available for people with good credit at rates below 4%. Housing affordability has never been better”. I’d love to hear other thoughts and opinions.
Agent Profile
My job is service...service to you and your real estate transactions! How can you benefit from my 25 years of experience and expertise? What can I offer to make the process more productive?
* Current information on available housing...comparative and competitive market pricing and analysis
* Daily involvement in the local real estate marketplace.
* Thorough, comprehensive knowledge reflecting years of helping others complete their real estate business.
* Extensive network of professional resources to make the process as smooth as possible.
My commitment is to you! Being available to you...returning your calls...answering your questions...addressing your concerns...respecting your money...matching your timeline...meeting your expectations...helping accomplish your real estate goals!!
JANEESE JACKSON: 503-709-0802 or jj@janeesejackson.com

