Ted C. Jones Brings Strong Opinions/Humor to Portland Oregon Economic Forecast!

February25
Ted Jones, Chief Economist for Stewart Title

Ted C. Jones, Chief Economist for Stewart Title

  •   ”and, I think it’s gonna be alright,
  • yes, the worst is over now.
  • The morning sun is shining like a red rubber ball”. 

The Cyrkle/1966  

  Ted C. Jones, Ph.D.
Senior Vice President-Chief Economist, Stewart Title Guaranty Company
Director of Investor Relations, Stewart Information Services Corporation NYSE-STC  gave a robust presentation today, Thursday February 25th, 2010 at the Columbia Yacht Club to a room full of Real Estate Brokers, Mortgage Brokers and Title reps hungry for information and tidbits of foresight on economic predictions for Portland, Oregon.  There were no “defining moments” or “jarring revelations” at this seminar, but lots of good facts, figures, opinions and observations!  His real estate and economic predictions (which he reminded us were just about “spot on” last year, except concerning interest rates) simply concurred with a lot of other reading and presentations I have attended.  However, he made the material interesting, palatable and interspersed what he called “Ted’s Solutions” to a myriad of problems.  You don’t have to agree with everything but he certainly backed up his opinions and prophecies with a lot of graphs and historical data.   

Basically, he reminded us that there will be no economic recovery until there is a jobs recovery!  And, that every recovery in every recession since 1949 has been led by the housing market!  He predicts tepid job growth for Portland and Oregon for 2010.  He showed innumerable graphs to indicate that we are definitely on the upswing with housing sales both for Oregon and throughout most of the US.  But, prices usually lag 1 to 1 1/2 years behind sales.  He believes that we will see very little movement in housing pricing in the next 18 months.  Then for the following 18 to 30-40 months we will see a slight increase in housing prices.  So, he sees a good four years before we see any real change in our current marketplace (which is a little better than the 5-year window I’ve been hearing and believing).  Go to http://fabulousportland.com/2010/01/27/whats-the-buzztell-me-whats-a-happening-in-portland-oregon-real-estate/ to see other musings on the “State of Real Estate in Portland”.  Through his graphs, he was able to visually show us how 2002 was our last “normal” year before the boom (which followed the 2001 recession and was right before interest rates plummeted).  Historically, homes typically appreciate 1 1/2% plus inflation per year according to a Case-Schiller study.  There were an estimated 610,000 additional housing sales in the US in 2009 due to the First-Time Home-buyer Tax Credit (which continues until April 30th, 2010). His 2010 “Economic Concerns” include: 
  • Wall Street:  liquidity and Washington realizing that they can’t contol
  • Jobs:  he feels the stimulus is not working
  • Time-Bomb loans:  now concerned about commercial
  • Terrorists attacks
  • Pandemic:  like Bird Flu
  • Inflation and cap rates going up
  • Tax-cuts
  • Energy:  US imports 63% of oil
  • All the band-aid fixes for real estate, autos, credit cards and banks

Just as a regular citizen trying to reign in a budget and make their finances work, the US must start with decreased spending.  He definitely believes (as do most in the industry) that interest rates are artificially low and will definitely begin to creep up.  He believes we will not see interest rates as low as we are now experiencing in our lifetime again (I guess it matters how old you are).  Those buyers with good credit or cash, a bit of patience and some luck will make some great buys in the existing market.  And, he feels our next crisis will be in the commercial real estate market.  “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme!”….Mark Twain.

About the Author | Janeese Jackson

My job is service...service to you and your real estate transactions! How can you benefit from my 20 years of experience and expertise? What can I offer to make the process more productive? * Current information on available housing...comparative and competitive market pricing and analysis * Daily involvement in the local real estate marketplace * Thorough, comprehensive knowledge reflecting years of helping others complete their real estate business * Extensive network of professional resources to make the process as smooth as possible My commitment is to you! Being available to you...returning your calls...answering your questions...addressing your concerns...respecting your money...matching your timeline...meeting your expectations...helping accomplish your real estate goals!!

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