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My job is service...service to you and your real estate transactions! How can you benefit from my 25 years of experience and expertise? What can I offer to make the process more productive?
* Current information on available housing...comparative and competitive market pricing and analysis
* Daily involvement in the local real estate marketplace.
* Thorough, comprehensive knowledge reflecting years of helping others complete their real estate business.
* Extensive network of professional resources to make the process as smooth as possible.
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JANEESE JACKSON: 503-709-0802 or jj@janeesejackson.com
“I’ve Been Down So Long, It Looks Like Up to Me”**!!! Today the Oregon State Economist, Tom Potiowsky presented his “State of the Oregon Economy” predictions and updates for 2010! I read a lot of financial blogs and feeds so I wanted to see if Mr Potiowsky’s predictions corroborated other analysts. The answer is “yes”! The era is being called the “Great Recession” (note: not “Great Depression”) due to this being the longest economic downturn since 1930! According to economists, this recession actually began in December 2007 and has now been deemed “technically ended” for the US in summer 2009 and for Oregon in the fall of 2009! Mr. P emphasized time and time again in his discussion today that the “technical” ending is quite different than the “feel good” ending. This “feel good” ending to our downturn will be very personal and much slower to realize. He predicts that by the 2nd half of 2010 and/or the first half of 2011 we will begin to “feel better”. And, the key to recovery is continued repair and loosening of the credit markets!
This has been a global recession. For the US, imports and exports slowed considerably and our CPI (consumer price index) has decreased in ’09 for the first time since 1955! Consumers, businesses and governments have restrained spending. Now there are inflation>deflation>inflation worries. But, Mr. P did not believe that inflation was a big worry for 2010 and 2011. Fiscal stimulus and lower energy prices have helped to spark the recovery and there’s still a lot of stimulus money to spend. Labor has to get higher wages to pay for inflationary prices.
Despite the fact that this morning there were positive numbers for unemployment (10%, down form 10.2%), Mr. P feels that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic condition. He expects that there could be more job losses in early 2010. We should, he believes, pay more attention to job creation! How many jobs are actually being created? In the 2001 recession, it took four years for jobs to completely recover. It may take 5-6 years to get back to our former job rate this time around.
The US dollar recovered briefly but has dropped again. Mr. P feels that the value of the dollar is a relative value against other currencies….that’s all! The dollar value is going down to where it used to be and where he believes it should be, at a more natural level.
What happens after we spend all the stimulus money? What’s behind the stimulus to continue the recovery? Labor markets may remain weak because businesses will be conservative and reluctant to re-hire until they’re sure this recovery “has legs”. He compares our recovery to the constellation “Cassiopeia” (the shape of a soft “W”) and there could be a recovery with a slight dip. In Oregon we hit 12% unemployment in March of ’09 and down to 11.3% in October ’09. For some perspective, we were at 5% in April of ’07!! Some of our jobs are gone for good, others are simply in hibernation. And, keep in mind that unemployment figures do not include those that have quit looking or those that have taken part-time work until they find full-time employment.
Mr. P believes we are at or very close to the bottom and predicts a slow housing recovery with a possible 35% increase in housing starts by between 2013 and 2015. Metro predicts that our population will grow by one million people in the next 10 years. The Housing Price Index “Rate of Decline” slowed and California is starting to gain ground.
Leading indicators for Oregon show that the economy has turned, but it will be a slow growth! We will see more signs of this recovery in the 2nd half of 2010 and in 2011. Mr. P predicts some positive job growth for Oregon in the 2nd half of 2010 but it could be 2011 before we really start to show positive numbers. Commercial real estate will remain weak till 2012 with a mild recovery that is absolutely dependent on the credit markets. Private investor groups will continue to buy up property since credit markets are tight.
Risks to this forecast:
- Credit Markets: There must be credit availability to the credit worthy.
- H1N1 Virus: He does not see this as a risk as big as the media plays it.
- Export Markets: Must stay viable.
- Geopolitical: Some unseen geographical/political event.
**Referencing the book by Richard Forina
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You post awsome articles. Bookmarked !